WxRisk.com – Windsong Forecasts
This morning statement is being issued at 0015 EDT April 6
*** If you are unfamiliar with WXRISK.COM, Click HERE to learn more about it****
This alert is going out because of the POTENTIAL for a moderate frost over the western half of the commonwealth Saturday morning and a more potentially serious event — possibly even a freeze — the mornings of April 13 and 14. The mild warm pattern we saw in March 2012 is over. There have been some major changes in the atmosphere across North America which have essentially ended the warm pattern and will ensure that temperatures shall remain below normal over the entire East Coast for the next two weeks. This new pattern is so strong that if this pattern were to occur in the months of December, January or February, it would probably result in a major East Coast snowstorm.
For example on Friday and Saturday morning there will be a well-organized area of Low pressure moving off the North Carolina coast. At the same time there will be a large cold area of HIGH pressure over the Great Lakes. During the winter months this sort of surface weather map often produces a major East Coast snowstorm. However since it is now early April the threat of seeing an East coast snowstorm is much reduced. Instead we are left with a cold pattern and rain over the Carolinas.
On SATURDAY morning the weather models show temperatures dropping down to the 28 to 32 degree range over much of eastern portions of West Virginia, the Western Maryland panhandle, much of northwest Virginia WEST of Highway 15. The data shows that the winds on Friday night into Saturday morning could drop off enough to allow for some frost damage especially in the predawn hours of Saturday.
Once this area of LOW pressure moves off the coast it will eventually become stall or trapped in the atmosphere over southeastern Canada. This will help establish a deep trough in the jet stream which will allow for more late season cold air to come southward APRIL 11, 12, and 13. This trough looks enormous and will have a lot of colder associated with it. In addition there will also be another LOW trying to form off the East Coast and a large cold HIGH pushing down from the northern Great Lakes.
Right now the model data shows that the interaction between the coastal Low and the late season cold HIGH over Eastern Canada will produce north winds at 10-20 mph over the entire East Coast April 12 and North winds at 8-15 mph on April 13. This sort of wind would be enough to prevent a hard frost from occurring.
However what I am concerned about is that on the morning of April 13 and / or 14. If the winds were drop off, given the amount of cold air showing up in the models, there would be a hard freeze over all of western and Central Virginia that will probably push down into North Carolina as well.
Over the weekend I will be watching the APRIL 12, 13, and 14 closely and I will have another statement issued early Monday morning and midday sent through the Virginia Wine Board Marketing Office.
David Tolleris, “DT”
wxrisk@comcast.net
(804) 307-8070
Ask for DT